The Plot Politics Decoded
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Fifteen years ago, the United Nations Security Council took a massive first step towards recognition of the lack of attention to gender equality and gender issues in peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and security processes around the world. UNSC Resolution 1325 provided a framework for the integration of women into peace processes, attention to gender-based violence committed during armed conflict, and commitment to the participation of women and girls in the post-conflict environment. 1325 led to the creation of the Interagency Task Force on Women, Peace, and Security and four additional resolutions aimed at the integration of women and gender issues in the context of conflict, peacebuilding, and peacekeeping; the subsequent creation of UN Women bolstered the UN’s work on gender equality in matters of peace and stability.
Beyond the assumptions of UNSCR 1325 regarding the value of women to post-conflict stability and peace, and various critiques of those assumptions, there has been limited systematic study of how and whether a greater political role for women in post-conflict environments actually leads to or helps maintain peace. Scholars have shown that higher rates of female political representation can lead to decreases in military spending and the likelihood of engaging in international conflict, civil war onset, and levels of state-sponsored repression. Yet, particularly in the context of civil wars and their aftermath, there have been little attempt to assess the impact of women’s participation on the prospects for post-conflict peace. Where there has been consideration of the political role of women on post-civil war outcomes, a specific rationale for why women should matter to the prospects for peace remains absent.
Why should women matter for the maintenance of peace?
To answer this question, we consider the ways in which women may differ from men regarding their styles of leadership and negotiation, the signals they send to others, and their policy interests. Rather than rely on essentialist assumptions that women are simply more peaceful than men, or more averse to violence, we believe that certain attributes of female politicians may lead to more sustained commitment to peace. However, we do not expect that this should unconditionally be true following an end to civil conflict. Rather, we expect that this will be true in the context of conflicts that end in peace agreements because those are situations in which women should be particularly useful in signaling trustworthiness and commitment to inclusive and consensual approaches to bargaining, as well as an interest in social welfare spending that is often a component of broader goals outlined in peace agreements.
First, an extensive literature in management studies and social psychology suggests a gender-based difference in leadership styles where women are more likely to exhibit, or are at least perceived to exhibit, and value, communal approaches to leadership that are inclusive of different groups and ideas. We think this should be particularly valuable in a post-conflict environment where perpetual bargaining and negotiation enable continued commitment to the terms of an agreement is important.
Second, a substantial literature in political science has demonstrated gender-based differences in the pursuit of women’s issues and social policy: legislatures with more women are more likely to pursue policies related to social welfare spending, such as on healthcare and education. We likewise expect that this will be particularly valuable in the post-conflict environment where such issues often propel conflict in the first place.
The results from multiple statistical analyses suggest that post-conflict states with higher percentages of female legislators are more likely to enjoy longer periods of post-conflict peace. However, as we suspect, this is true only in the context of conflicts terminated via peace agreements. This result holds even after controlling for important confounders, such as common indicators of social gender equality. Moreover, we find statistical support for some of the core mechanisms identified in our theory. Principally, auxiliary analyses suggests that states with greater proportions of female representations are more likely to devote greater resources to social welfare and spend less on the military—spending decisions that influence the likelihood of civil war recurrence.
Our study highlights the agency of women within the post-conflict political process. In contrast to studies that focus on gender norms or hierarchies as a causal explanation for peace, our argument and analysis have moved the roles of women to the forefront. Importantly, our study also suggests that underlying gender norms do not necessarily explain the relationship between women’s representation and conflict violence. Peace agreements present new opportunities for women to become involved in the political process, and women’s formal political representation in these cases often rapidly outpaces changes in broader societal norms. Consequently, our results suggest that this increase in female representation—rather than just underlying social norms—influences the likelihood of conflict recurrence.
