Polling and Voting

On the Difficulty of Forecasting “Winners” in Parliamentary Elections

Photo Credits: UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and the founder and editor-in-chief of the well-known blog FiveThirtyEight, who rose to fame in the political area through his incredibly accurate data-driven predictions of U.S. Presidential election results. Before the 2012 U.S. Presidential election Mr. Silver correctly predicted the outcomes in all 50 ...

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Catalonia’s quest for independence: Plain dead or alive and kicking?

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The outcome of the recent regional election in Catalonia (which was held on September 27th) has been read very differently by the pro-independence and the pro-union camps. The former have emphasized that pro-independence parties won, for the first time in Catalan history, a clear majority of seats in the Catalan ...

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The Particularistic President: Executive Branch Politics and Political Inequality.

Photo credits: Sabbir

In the United States presidential elections are big business.  More than fifteen months before the general election, candidates and their affiliated super-PACs have already raised almost $130 million.  They will raise and spend many hundreds of millions more before the last ballot is counted.  The vast majority of those dollars ...

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Voting against your constituents? How lobbying affects representation

Photo credits: Peter Mosimann

Do MPs listen to interest groups instead of their voters? Citizens delegate the representation of their political preferences to Members of Parliament (MPs) who are supposed to represent their interests in the legislature. However, MPs are exposed to a variety of interest groups seeking to influence how MPs cast their vote on policy proposals. Every day, thousands of lobbyists approach our legislative representatives in Brussels, Washington and any other democratic capital to influence legislative votes in their favor.

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Who stuffs Turkey? Statistical anomalies and jinns in Turkish elections

Photo credits: Nub Cake/Source: Wikimedia Commons

The 2015 Turkish Parliamentary elections went, perhaps much to our surprise, relatively smoothly. The previously governing AK Parti (AKP) was denied for the first time in its history an absolute majority. The AKP received 41% of the votes (they achieved 49% in the previous parliamentary elections and 52% in the last presidential election). This won the AKP 258 of 550 available seats, 18 short of a majority.

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