Global Affairs

Who stuffs Turkey? Statistical anomalies and jinns in Turkish elections

The 2015 Turkish Parliamentary elections went, perhaps much to our surprise, relatively smoothly. The previously governing AK Parti (AKP) was denied for the first time in its history an absolute majority. The AKP received 41% of the votes (they achieved 49% in the previous parliamentary elections and 52% in the last presidential election). This won the AKP 258 of 550 available seats, 18 short of a majority.

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An ‘A’ for effort: Experimental evidence on UN Security Council engagement and support for US military action

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has often adopted resolutions to authorise the American use of force. What do these resolutions communicate to the wider public overseas? Will they increase levels of support for US military action? A survey study [link to article] we have conducted in Japan finds not only that UNSC resolutions increase levels of support, but also that resolutions which failed due to a Chinese or Russian veto will still secure high levels of support for the use of force. If a draft resolution is withdrawn, however, or the US gives up on diplomacy, then public support falls. Foreign public opinion gives an ‘A’ for diplomatic effort when the US at least tries to pass a resolution; self-withdrawal is the worst case for the US.

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